Consequences of climate change on Brazilian soybeans production

Resumo

Climate change is a current problem in agricultural production. Soybean is one of the main crops produced in the world, the main source of oil and vegetable protein, and contributes to the planet's food security. However, soybeans are sensitive to climate variations, such as extreme temperatures and water excess or deficit. Studies with simulation of the future climate and its impact on soybean yield reported that increased temperature and instability in the rainfall regime harm the production of this crop, as it alters the physiology of the plant and limits the attainable yield. Meanwhile, studies report that a higher concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere can increase yield, but that would be limited to conditions in which the temperature does not exceed the optimum range for the crop. In simulation studies, it has been reported that climate change in the medium to long term will reduce both the planted area and soybean production in Brazil, due to climate variables being above the optimal limits for the crop. However, there is still room for genetic improvement to adapt future cultivars to future scenarios and mitigate this problem. In this context, the development of new technologies and their transfer to rural producers will play an important role in guaranteeing future agricultural production in a climate change scenario.